NATO: can you fight crazy?

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Nato to create high-readiness force to counter Russian threat

Ever since Russia annexed the Crimean peninsula of Ukraine this past March, experts and laypersons alike have imbibed in a potent cocktail of alarmism and nostalgia. The outbreak of fighting in southeastern Ukraine was thus seen by many as the opening salvo of Cold War II. Any hope of sobering the collective consciousness of the Western World was dashed by Putin's embracing of the thuggish, James Bond villain-esque image the world media created for him.

On September 1st 2014 NATO announced that it would dedicate time in its upcoming summit to the creation of a 4,000 strong rapid reaction force. The stated objective of this force is to combat potential Russian incursions into the territories of any Eastern European NATO Country. The creation of this "spearhead" force represents the squirming of an organization stuck between a rock and a hard place. NATO can't be seen to do nothing about Russian expansion because the organization was created for the sole purpose of preventing such expansion. On the other hand, increasing NATO troop concentrations in Poland and the Baltic states goes against the Conventional Forces in Europe Treaty (CFE) signed between NATO and the Russian Federation.

The problem with violating the CFE is that Putin may use it as an excuse to ramp up military action in neighboring countries not under the protection of NATO. The bottom line is that Putin needs this war. In his mind he has been tasked by a higher authority with bringing Russia back to superpower status. He has parlayed this personal belief into the backbone of his entire domestic political strategy. Putin has used his de facto control of Russian media to show his people a world in which "The West" controls everything and seeks to crush the once mighty Russia into a helpless vassal state to be exploited by the global corporate elite. Of course, Putin fits himself into this narrative as the heroic figure who will defend The Motherland against her many enemies and help her reclaim her rightful place in the pantheon of great nations. Put simply, NATO's actions play into this narrative. There is no doubt that those in command at NATO are fully aware of this, but they have little choice.

The Eastern European NATO states are right to worry for their security. Ironically however, Putin does not have the capability to win the war he so desperately craves. The Russian army has a relatively small quantity of very well armed and trained special forces soldiers. Aside from these units, the Russian army consists almost entirely of unpaid, under-trained, and barely equipped conscripts. The Chechen rebel fighters proved the Russian regular army as good for little more than high capacity lead absorption.

The profound inefficacy of the Russian regular army explains the almost complete reliance on local proxy forces in Ukraine. If Putin does continue to move west, there won't be any local proxies to rely on. If Putin succeeds in sparking his pet world war, it is a near certainty that Russia will lose. However, the sheer size of both prospective forces ensures massive casualty levels. Even if Putin succeeds in "uniting all Russian speaking people across the globe," his country will be worse off than it was before the conflict.

There is an axiom that states, "you can't fight crazy."  By creating this spearhead, NATO is attempting to fight crazy. They know they won't succeed, but also know there is nothing else they can do.