Wednesday, November 19, 2014

A Truly Fascinating Portrait of Geopolitical Intrigue

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/nov/18/finland-red-alert-expansion-russia



This article gives a complex, nuanced and insightful picture of an international flashpoint. Such depth is seldom seen outside of literature written for international relations professionals. This article is great because it constructs a compelling narrative for the reader, without cherry picking facts for the sake of a good story. The comparison of dour, icy-eyed, Finnish navy captain Markus Aarnio to Sean Connery's character in "The Hunt for Red October" humanizes Aarnio without cheapening the piece as a whole. The brief background portion of the article allows an uninitiated reader to gain a working understanding of the complex relationship between Finland and Russia, without having to do outside research.

Some of the most insightful ideas in the article came directly from the mouth of the Finish prime minister or, at least, his PR team. This, in itself, is worthy of comment.  Usually, politicians give the most ambiguous and inoffensive responses possible, or spout shallow and binarized rhetoric. Prime Minister Stubb does neither. Stubb calls Russia's policy of destabilization followed by intervention a "strategic mistake." Many other public figures would choose to fall back on loaded words like imperialistic or provocative. Stubb doubtless sees Russia's recent actions as both imperialistic and provocative, but it appears as though he sees saber-rattling as counterproductive. Stubb takes another political risk by placing partial blame for the current Russian situation on the West. Stubb seems to think the West put too much effort into trying to make Russia a "normal, liberal market democracy."  In light of the apparent failure of this effort, he calls upon the world to be "principled and pragmatic." This level of restraint is heartening because a nation under direct threat from Russia seems to be calmer and more grounded than more peripherally involved nations, like The U.S.

This article also provides an interesting perspective on the mindset of Vladimir Putin, through the words of two former Finnish ambassadors. Russia is painted as lost, and scrambling for anything to stave off an inevitable collapse.  Russia's reaction to the potential loss of influence in Ukraine was so aggressive because claims of national exceptionalism have to substitute for actual progress in Russia. An unnamed Finnish insider used the phrase, "... the Russian economy is living on borrowed time."  The inefficiency of Russia's whole petroleum infrastructure is greatly reducing output, to the point where many EU nations are considering looking elsewhere for their fuels. The recent drop in oil prices is putting even more pressure on Russia's precarious energy sector.  Finnish leaders are very worried about a Russian economic collapse; they fear a Putin with nothing to lose.  "Putin is no Gorbachev, he is not a guy who is going to give up. He will not go quietly." The insider's words have chilling implications.

No comments:

Post a Comment